The first,  high level document setting out key areas of agreement between the coalition partners in the new government was issued on 11 May 2010.  In this note, we provide an initial commentary on what it contains and what its implications might be for public services and the public service industry

The three main parties’ manifestos for the 2010 general election are hardly short pamphlets – The Lib Dems’ is the shortest, at about 18,000 words, while the Tories weigh in at 27,000 words and Labour tops 30,000.

Yet they tell us little we did not know already about Tory and Labour plans for reducing the deficit and reining back public spending.  We do know a bit more about the Lib Dems’ intentions, but even they are being less than open about their longer term plans.

To learn more about what each party is proposing, and what might happen if we have a hung parliament, read our manifesto briefing in full.

At one level, the Budget did not tell us much we did not already know about the public spending outlook – and neither did the Conservatives’ proposals on 29 March nor the debate between the Treasury spokesmen on Channel 4 the same day.  Essentially all the parties are promising to cut spending by unprecedented amounts but none will tell you how and where (with the part exception of the Lib Dems)  

However, we thought it was worth trying to look ahead to what might happen after the Comprehensive Spending Review which will inevitably follow the next election, and provide some insight into the likely winners and losers

You can read our briefing here.

The Pre Budget Report (PBR) on 9 December provided some further insight into the prospects for public spending after the next election, albeit in less detail than many had hoped. You can read our latest briefing note following the PBR here.  The outlook for public spending Dec 2009

We have seen growing interest in the adult social care sector from private equity investors in the past couple of years. This note provides a high level briefing on the sector.

Like most of the rest of the public sector, social care has benefited from increased investment in recent years. Although total spend actually fell slightly in 207/8, gross current expenditure by Local Authorities (LAs) in England on Personal Social Services was £20.7 billion.  Of this, spending on Adult Services accounted for £15.3 billion, similar in real terms to 2006-07, of which  £8.8 billion (57%) was spent on services for older people. 48% of gross adult spending  in 2007/8 went on residential care, with 39% on day and home care and the rest on assessment and care management. Read the rest of this entry »

The leaking of the McKinsey Report on how to save money in the NHS to Health Service Journal seems finally to have kick-started a debate on whether, and how, health spending might be restrained. However it is interesting that the debate so far has been among professionals and experts such as the Kings Fund. The opposition moved quickly to paint the report as showing the government’s “true intentions” towards the NHS, contrasted with their own commitment to real terms spending increases (a case of the “biter bit” if ever there was one); meanwhile the government immediately said that it had “no plans to adopt these proposals in the future”, effectively rejecting the findings of a report which it had commissioned!

So more of the same so far: both sides falling over themselves to pledge support to the NHS, putting undue faith in yet more efficiency savings and ignoring (at least in public) the real challenges which the NHS and wider health spending will face in the next decade and beyond. Meanwhile some of the ideas in the McKinsey report have real merit and others are statements of the blindingly obvious, and all certainly merit sensible discussion.

We’ll provide further and fuller views on what might be the future for the NHS in a fuller commentary in a few days time – watch this space.

In recent discussions with investors we have found much confusion about the true facts surrounding the extent to which public spending is under pressure and how much government and opposition are likely to spend after the next general election. Our new commentary is intended to get behind a lot of political bluster and separate fact from rhetoric.

To read the commentary click here.